CHISportsNation

If you follow the National League standings, you woke up today to a pleasant surprise.  The Cubs’ magic number shrank from 14 to 12 overnight.  The Cubs victory (a 1-0 nail-biter) coupled with a Milwaukee loss leave us with a Magic Number of 12…

12
Kyle Schwarber is our Magic Number?

Good news!  Any combination of Cubs wins and Milwaukee losses that equals 12 means the Cubs will clinch the National League Central for the third straight year.  So here’s some “fun with math” as they like to say…

The Chicago Cubs are sitting at 87-61 right now with 14 games left to play.  Let’s use .500 as the measuring stick and calculate outcomes as if the Cubs can go 7-7 the rest of the way.  Shall we?

If the Cubs go 7-7 down the stretch, they will finish with a 94-68 record.  That will mean that Milwaukee, with 13 games to play, would have to go 11-2 in their final games to win the division.  They play the Pirates four more times, and face the Reds and Cardinals three games each before finishing against Detroit.  I do not predict 11-2 for the Beermakers.  The first Wild Card is their likely prize.

The St. Louis Cardinals (ugh) sit at 81-68 with 13 to go.  If they win out, they would finish at 94-68.  They are likely desperately hoping for the second Wild Card berth this year, but FanGraphs.com only has them at 46.1% to pull that off.  Their three straight losses to Los Angeles currently has them on the outside looking in.

But remember, this is based on the Cubs being able to go 7-7 the rest of the way.  The upcoming series after today’s tilt against Cincinnati are:

  • @ Arizona (.523 winning percentage)
  • @ White Sox (.399 WP)
  • Home vs. Pittsburgh (.497 WP)
  • Home vs. St. Louis (.544 WP)

The series against the Sox is technically an away game, but the Cubs will be in Chicago for the final 10 games of this season.  This bodes well for this team that currently leads their division by 2.5 games.  This certainly bodes well for this team that likes to remind us that they “Never Quit.”

Hope to see you all at Wrigley Field for Game 1 of the NLDS!

 

 

Hogwarts image courtesy of Universal Studios

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