Arbitration Decisions Looming
The November 30 deadline to tender arbitration eligible players a contract for the 2019 season is now less than 10 days away. On this date, the Sox are required to inform their eligible players whether they will be receiving a contract (non-guaranteed) or become a member of the free agent pool. Arbitration hearings are not until February, but the White Sox do have some crucial decisions to make, with regards to their 2019 plans.
Chicago has six arbitration eligible players: Avisail Garcia (estimated to make 8.0 million), Jose Abreu (estimated to make 16.0 million), Danny Farquhar (estimated to make 1.4 million), Leury Garcia (estimated to make 1.9 million), Carlos Rodon (estimated to make 3.7 million) and Yolmer Sanchez (estimated to make 4.7 million).
Now, the organization could also decide to offer each of these individuals a contract that is noticeably less than what they are projected to earn through the process, and force them into a decision to stay or leave — and if this year’s free agency goes any bit like last year, it will definitely be a world of the unknown for these players if they hit the open market.
Let’s take a look at all six of these players and their White Sox future. Initially, here are the players who I believe are 100% certain to receive a contract: Jose Abreu and Carlos Rodon.
For Abreu, 16.0 million is quite a bit of money, but he currently still is the face of the franchise, and in a year before his first encounter with free agency, he is poised for a big year. Abreu could even become a trade deadline candidate in July for the White Sox. This is a no-brainer. Abreu will be tendered.
The same can be said for Carlos Rodon. His estimated earnings are a complete bargain at this point in his career. Carlos has the stuff to be a frontline starting pitcher if he can stay healthy, and he showed flashes of brilliance last season, once his health inched closer to 100%. Rodon is another no-brainer to be tendered a deal.
While Rodon and Abreu are no-brainers in my mind, I’m going to explain why Danny Farquhar and Leury Garcia should be non-tendered.
Despite his life-threatening injury and heartwarming recovery, Farquhar should be let loose into the free agency pool. The organization should not risk 1.4 million on a reliever who may or may not pitch in the big leagues next season. The Sox have plenty of arms in the minor leagues, and at this point in the rebuild, they don’t need to spend much, if at all, on middle relievers.
Leury Garcia is a little bit tougher of a non-tender candidate. Garcia is an interesting decision, as he is a super-utility man and has done some nice things for the club. He hit .271 a season ago, stole 12 bases, and drove in 32 runs in a reserve role, but his OBP was just .303. For me, 2 million is too much to spend on an extra outfielder on a rebuilding team. He would not receive that in free agency, and now that he is primarily an outfielder, there isn’t as much as a need for him on the south side. Garcia has served his purpose, but it’s time to let him walk.
We now look at Yolmer Sanchez and Avisail Garcia, the two not named Jose, who are set to earn the most from arbitration. They are two of the bigger contributors to last year’s team, but also a couple tough decisions.
With Yolmer Sanchez, it is essential to tender him a contract. His estimated earnings of 4.7 million has been earned in my opinion, and even if the Sox do sign a third baseman in free agency, he is an individual that can play all three infield positions. Even more valuable than his versatility is his character and how he can keep the clubhouse loose. He also epitomizes the identity of Rick Renteria’s ball club and is a player who will bring everything he has to the club day in and day out. Additionally, if the Sox do not sign a third baseman in free agency, he has proven that he can play every day, as he played in 155 games in 2018. He is only 26 years old, and eventually could turn into that super utility guy every team needs, and once the Sox have a more solidified option at third base, Yolmer is someone who can play a huge role on a championship contending club, due to his versatility.
That leaves us with Avisail Garcia. It has been no secret that the White Sox have been trying to trade him ever since last winter, and recently, reports have the Sox actively searching for a suitor prior to the non-tender deadline. It has also been said, the Sox have an elevated chance of non-tendering Avi if he is not traded. Coming off an injury plagued 2018 campaign, I am not comfortable paying him 8.0 million, but I am also not comfortable letting a player of his caliber and ceiling walk free. He is only one season removed from an all-star season where he posted career numbers, and you cannot put a lot of stock into his 2018 season, as he was banged up from the beginning. Garcia is currently only 27 years old, entering the prime of his career. The only way I am letting Garcia walk freely is if Bryce Harper is signed before November 30, which isn’t happening.
I propose option “c” for the White Sox. Offer Garcia an ultimatum: take less money or leave. Hahn should offer Garcia slightly more than what he would receive on the open market, which will still be significantly less than 8.0 million. Garcia will need to swallow his pride and accept the deal, but the question marks surrounding him after 2018 are quite high, and it is no guarantee he would receive a contract on the open market prior to spring training. He would become a small fish in a very big sea.
From the White Sox standpoint, if Garcia is healthy, I expect him to return to a valuable everyday player, which then makes him an intriguing trade piece come July. I don’t see Garcia in the Sox’ plans when 2020 comes around, but he still has value at this time. Just letting him walk would be a mistake because he has a high ceiling as he enters his prime. Offer him less money and force his hand, then flip him at the trade deadline. If he flops in 2019, you’re not out anything, and he simply becomes a free agent next season. The Sox have more control over him than they may believe.
A lot can happen in 10 days, but how the White Sox proceed until the November 30 deadline will tell a lot about their plans for not only 2019, but also the years to come. And, while I don’t see it happening, maybe they are closer to landing a big name than we think. We shall wait and see.
Feautred Image: Christian Petersen/Getty Images
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