Thinking Ahead: A Potential Trade That Could Build to the Cubs’s Infrastructure
After a shockingly slow start to the 2019 season, the Cubs seem to be back in action. The trifecta of Bryant, Rizzo, and Báez are mashing better than ever and the pitching is greatly improving from what it was in early April.
Even so, there have definitely been holes that the Cubs have been unable to patch. The most prominent of these being, in my opinion, the lack of a consistent closer. The Strop experiment has backfired, despite having sufficient evidence to suggest otherwise.
In this article, I am here to suggest a trade that wouldn’t be difficult to make, would patch holes in the roster, and keep those holes patched past this season…
The Trade
The trade, drumroll please, is for Baltimore Orioles utility man Jonathan Villar and closer Mychal Givens. Initially, this trade doesn’t seem too special. Villar and Givens have never been eye-openers in their careers despite numbers to prove they’re good depth or more. But, looking into it more, it could be very beneficial to the Cubs. I’ll start by analyzing the numbers of each player separately before analyzing why it could be so good for the Cubs.
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Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images
Villar has bounced around a lot in his career. As a utility man, he has usually been considered as depth, especially with his stint in Milwaukee. So far this season, he has posted a .260/.310/.399 slash line, 0.7 fWAR, and a 90 wRC+. Very similar to his 2018 season, except for the fWAR, which has been more than halved. What really makes Villar special as a player is his speed. Throughout his career, he has always been able to pull out 15-20+ stolen bases a season. Last year and in 2016, he was able to gain over 30, leading the league in 2016 with 62 and having 35 last season. It’s not like he’s caught often either, as he was successful in 87.5% of stolen base attempts last season.
Givens has been, in my opinion, one of the biggest sleepers at the closer spot for the last few years. He hasn’t been as impressive or flashy as some others in the league, but he is a consistent closer with good numbers. He has been off to a good start this season, posting a 2.89 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 24 K, 7 BB, and a .212 BAA in 18.2 IP. Even last season, which was his worst year, he posted decent numbers. Those include a 3.99 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 79 K, 30 BB, and a .218 BAA in 76.2 IP. Now, in save situations last season, he was decent being introduced to that role. He posted a 3.41 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 27 K, 13 BB, and a .187 BAA in those situations.
Why is the Trade So Good for the Cubs?
Now, I’ll just be clear. I don’t expect this to be a trade that puts the Cubs considerably over the hump. In fact, I would be quite surprised if this trade ended up being a decider in a potential championship run. What I do see this trade as is stability to the holes in the Cubs’s infrastructure. In a championship run, you should never leave any hole unchecked, no matter the size and need. For a team with most major needs already covered, this helps patch up the minor holes.
Givens provides the consistent closer the Cubs have coveted the last two seasons. To be blunt, the Morrow signing has been more of a debacle than the helpful signing it was projected to be. While not being a mediocre pitcher in any sense of the word, his health has become a major roadblock in what was thought to be a consistent closer. Givens gives that depth at closer, and for multiple years. As of right now, he has two more years of arbitration outside of the 2019 season. Acquiring him now essentially would give the Cubs two-and-a-half years of a closer capable of 70+ innings a season.
Villar fills a more subtle need the Cubs have had for the last few years, and that’s a good leadoff man. Since Fowler left for St. Louis, the Cubs have been left without a reliable guy in that spot. They have transitioned to many names, like Schwarber, Almora, Heyward, and even Báez for a stint. None have stuck consistently, so while not being a glaring issue, it’s a little hole that would be nice to patch. What’s an added bonus about Villar is his speed. The Cubs have had guys in their championship window who have wheels, like Báez and Fowler, but they’ve never had one the likes of Villar. They’ve never had one who can pump out an 87.5% success rate when running on the diamond in 40 attempts, or one who’s lead the league in stolen bases for a season.
Now yes, Villar isn’t a special hitter. It doesn’t take a statistical guru to know that he’s probably not even an average hitter statistically. But again, the little needs can help so much. Villar at leadoff last season posted decent numbers, such as a .281/.344/.357 slash line. While being a quite mediocre stat line, the numbers to look at are in the average and on-base percentage, which is quite adequate for a leadoff man. If you give that leadoff man tremendous speed for guys like Báez, Bryant, and Rizzo, you could have an annoying lineup to face. Even outside the leadoff spot, his speed can provide more opportunities for runners in scoring position for the Cubs. Not only that, but his capability to play the middle infield, every outfield spot, and third base could replace Zobrist’s utility role.
Now yes, there’s obviously a chance this trade could go south in terms of either becoming completed or in the value of each player. A package like this would likely give the Orioles the upper hand with the prospects they choose, which could drive a wrench in the negotiation. I do recognize, however, that this trade patches up some of the Cubs’ team issues that have been presented the past few years.
Although not as imperative as gaining a big fish for a large hole, filling small team holes is very important for a title run. This move helps us there, not just now, but for many years to come.
Featured Image: Jon Durr/Getty Images
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