Where Do the Blackhawks Stand Going into the Dead Period?
After the Stanley Cup is awarded each year, fans around the world are pretty much focused on two dates. The first date is the NHL draft, the second is free agency day on July 1st. The week in between these two events is often littered with trades, but after Independence Day in the states, there really isn’t much hockey related news for the better part of a month.
This year the most exciting part of Chicago’s remaining summer will be prospect camp, a chance to check in on guys like Boqvist, Beaudin, Kurashev, and many other prospects that should be progressing. I think the highlight will obviously be seeing Kirby Dach in a Hawks practice sweater for the first time. Chicago has definitely been more active than in recent years, and in a more positive way, I think that one thing we can all agree on is that the team does look quite a bit better than this time last year. But how do they stack up with the rest of the league?
We will be dissecting every area of the roster, including how it stacks up against the rest of the league. Each category will be given a final ranking of top 5, top 3rd, middle 3rd, bottom 3rd, or bottom 5. These rankings will be based objectively on how the team finished last season coupled with the additions made this offseason and the assumption the Jeremy Colliton’s system will be fully and smoothly implemented during a full training camp.
Top-6 Forwards
Come October, the top-6 will more than likely be some combination of Kane, Toews, Strome, Debrincat, Saad, and then one of Kubalik, Shaw, Perlini, or Sikura. In the cases of Sikura and Perlini, I don’t think they are necessarily top-6 talents on their own, however, Perlini compliments the Strome/Debrincat combination extremely well while Sikura was a great possession driver with Saad and Toews.
The biggest wildcard here is Kirby Dach, if he makes the team out of camp I would assume that he would occupy a top-6 role more often than not, maybe in the form of an elite playmaking winger for Strome and Debrincat who can both fill up the back of the net. Dach’s presence would also make it increasingly unlikely that Anisimov would remain on the roster in the short term.
The verdict: middle 3rd
Chicago doesn’t lack start power, Kane and Toews both had career years last year while Alex Debrincat announced that he is a pure goal scorer and here to stay. The only things holding this group back in my mind are that Saad often leaves more to be desired, and we haven’t seen Strome drive a line on his own or sustain his torrid pace over an entire season. Chicago is one of the best teams in the league when Saad is on the third line, but that means a few complementary players must play a little bit above their career average and round out the top two lines.
Forward Depth
Stan Bowman has made depth and replenishing the prospect pool his top priorities, and Chicago is sitting in a better place than they have in a while. Throughout the season the team was able to acquire Dominik Kubalik and Drake Caggiula for mere pennies on the dollar. This offseason Bowman has further bolstered the depth up front by re-acquiring Andrew Shaw along with signing Ryan Carpenter to an affordable deal.
A couple of Chicago prospects that you should keep an eye on are Philipp Kurashev, MacKenzie Entwistle, and Aleksi Saarela who had quite a season with the Charlotte Checkers of the AHL last season. Kurashev burst onto the seen with a dominant performance at the world juniors while Saarela was acquired in the Calvin de Haan trade from Carolina as a change of scenery. Chicago will have a nice combination of youthful talent and veteran leadership in their bottom-6 which should bode well for the team in the long run.
The verdict: top 3rd
A lot of this hinges on whether Saad plays up with Toews, or on the third line. If Saad is in the middle six (although I don’t think it is a great longterm plan) I believe it gives Chicago the best chance to win now, which is what it’s all about. Andrew Shaw is a welcomed addition to the middle-6 as well, he brings a lot of versatility and grit, and it seems like even a decent chunk of offense these days. Ryan Carpenter could be the key to this as well, he has been brought in to win faceoffs and take a lot of pressure off of Jonathan Toews, especially on the penalty kill which would open up the ice more for Toews to have another big season like last year.
Top-4 Defensemen
This is a lot more murky than the forward outlook, Chicago has nine potential NHL blue liners, with no clear cut top pairing guys this could go in many different directions.Time will tell what Colliton and Bowman want to do to mold their defense, but from what they have said in recent interviews, it looks like the Hawks will be running with what they have on hand. Much like the forwards, this group looks much better than this time last year, but far from perfect.
My guess is that Keith and Gustafsson will remain on the first pairing to drive offense, Gustafsson has really raised Keith’s game since February and I don’t see any reason for Colliton to go away from that. One of Olli Maatta or Calvin de Haan will anchor the second pairing, my money is on de Haan and Murphy, if Murphy is still there come October. This would be the best option for a shutdown pairing that would allow Brent Seabrook and Olli Maatta to see sheltered minutes and be put in the best position for success.
The verdict: bottom 3rd
The additions of Maatta and de Haan, and the enormous success that Gustafsson had last season give me hope that there will be a sizable turnaround this year. One thing to note is that the Islanders went from the worst defense in the NHL in 2017-18 to winning the Jennings Trophy for least goals allowed in 2018-19 under Barry Trotz who coaches a similar defensive scheme to Jeremy Colliton. Pair that with the new stay at home defensemen that have been acquired could be a recipe for success in the Windy City, but as it stands there really is no legitimate top-2 defenseman on this roster.
Henri Jokiharju is one to keep an eye on, he could be a legitimate top-4 guy as soon as this year, and he might even be the Hawks’ second or third best defenseman at this very moment. Stan Bowman has painted the picture that Jokiharju is on the outside looking in this season, look for the young 20 year old to make it a very tough decision for management to burn another year of his ELC in the AHL.
Defensive Depth
Chicago has a lot of quantity when it comes to NHL caliber defensemen, but the quality of the bottom of their group is really lacking for the most part. The club has probably four or five defensemen that would be great sixth or seventh defensemen on most teams, but there really isn’t anyone that is much above average for the three through five spots in the lineup.
It will be interesting to see if Beaudin or Boqvist make a legitimate push to at least get their nine game stint in the NHL without burning their ELC, although Beaudin will burn the first year of his contract in Rockford regardless. I do genuinely think that having Seabrook and Maatta on the third pairing makes this a much better team than when Seabrook is in the top-4, and the decreased penalty kill minutes should benefit both Keith and Seabrook which obviously benefits the team as a whole.
The verdict: middle 3rd
Chicago has a wealth of depth options on the blue line this year, although the talent isn’t overwhelming, it would seem that the team is in a good position to absorb injuries when they come along. This depth also gives the coaching staff a lot of different potential combinations to truly find the best pairings and rotate some of the veteran players to keep them fresh.
Goaltending
I don’t think it is a stretch to say that absolutely no one saw the Robin Lehner signing coming, my own reaction was to wonder if Crawford is indeed done. After listening to why the move was made it makes a lot more sense, Crawford hasn’t played a full season since 2014 and we have seen that it takes two goaltenders to win in today’s NHL.
Lehner was a Vezina finalist last year as one of the top three goalies in the entire NHL, on a one year contract he will be more than motivating to go out and dominate again. When healthy, Crawford can still be a top five/top ten goalie in the league still, making for a deadly combination that gives this team a chance to win every single night. It will be interesting to see who ends up getting more starts out of the tandem if they are both healthy, but that is a good problem to have. Even if a goalie goes down Chicago still has Collin Delia who showed that he is more than capable of being a good backup at this point in his career.
The verdict: top 5
The only thing that I don’t 100% like about this move is the fact that if Chicago gets into the playoffs teams generally don’t run a two goalie rotation regardless of how the split worked in the regular season. I would rather worry about that issue once the playoffs started, but it definitely would be a downer to have a $5 or $6 million goalie not playing a minute in the postseason.
Special Teams
Special teams are always an interesting topic, analysts talk about how important the power play and penalty kill are to a team’s success. If you look back, some of Chicago’s deepest runs and even their championships feature some of the worst power plays the team has had in the last decade. The two best seasons as far as the power play is concerned were the 2015-16 and 2018-19 teams who did not have playoff success. The power play was on an absolute mission for much of last season, and with the addition of Shaw and potentially Dach I think the unit gets even better this year.
When it comes to the penalty kill the Blackhawks were almost historically bad last season, so there is nowhere to go but up to be quite honest. Ryan Carpenter was the only real addition on the penalty kill as Andrew Shaw does not play a ton of time on that unit in spite of his style of play. Carpenter should take some pressure off Jonathan Toews in these situations but I don’t see a massive improvement from this group.
The verdict: middle 3rd
The power play could be one of the best in the league next season, but the penalty kill could be much maligned once again. A full training camp under Jeremy Colliton’s system should help, and I think that Stan Bowman still has one or two moves to make this offseason to potentially bolster the PK. As is the common theme throughout all of Chicago’s units I truly believe that both special teams units will be better than last season, just how much remains to be seen.
Potential Lineup
[socialpoll id=”2557787″]Chicago has a decent amount of prospects that could potentially make the jump if they have a great summer so there will be a ton of competition for the first time in years, which should be good for all parties involved. This lineup gives the Hawks a chance to win now, and although it may not be the most intimidating lineup on paper, I also don’t think teams will be salivating when they see them on the schedule.
There is no doubt that Chicago will be attempting to make a run at the playoffs this year, and they are equipped to do so. As we saw with St. Louis last year and Los Angelas in the past, all you need to do is make the tournament and anything can happen from there. Jeremy Colliton has a lot of options and it will all come down to how he uses those resources and if the team can maintain what they did the second half of last season.
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