5 Reasons the Blackhawks will be Contenders Again in 2019-20
Shortly after the Blackhawks hoisted the cup in 2015 many started to talk about the potential downfall of the team that tortured the league for six straight seasons. In the following season, Chicago managed to take St. Louis to a game seven in the first round, a season that ended with a double-post shot from Andrew Ladd.
The following season the team came back to put up 109 points and win the Western Conference before being swept by the Nashville Predators. For many, that was the moment, that is when the dynasty officially ended. Since then the team has missed the playoffs for two straight seasons, looking like one of the worst teams in the NHL for a good portion of that time. But, the “rebuild” might not be a rebuild at all, and this team may really shock the world.
1) Best Goalie Tandem in the League
Stan Bowman has not been shy when it comes to his excitement surrounding the team’s new goaltending duo of Corey Crawford and Robin Lehner. We know what we are going to get with Crawford, a goalie that will miss some time due to injury, but a goalie that can be top-10 in the league when he is healthy. I would imagine Crawford will get 30-40 starts this season, maybe more when he is the hot hand. Robin Lehner, coming off a season where he finished second in the NHL in save percentage, and third overall in the Vezina Trophy voting also secured his first Masterson Memorial Trophy which is given to the team who allows the least amount of goals during the regular season. Lehner’s situation on Long Island deteriorated following the season, and he will be looking to bet on himself once again with this one year deal in Chicago.
Over the past three NHL seasons, Lehner ranks 8th in the entire league of goalies playing 5,000 minutes or more with a .919 save percentage, while Crawford ranks 11th with a save percentage of .917. Crawford also ranks 3rd in the league in high danger save percentage at .845 on shots taken in close proximation to the goal during that time frame. Even if Crawford does get hurt, Chicago still has Collin Delia who has proven capable of being an NHL backup.
The top 5 goalie tandems, in my opinion.
Crawford & Lehnder
Vasilevskiy & McElhinney
Gibson & Miller
Price & Kinkaid
Rinne & Saros
HM: Binnington & Allen, Bishop & Khudobin
2) Star Power
Much has been said about Chicago’s aging core, and on the defensive side, those thoughts may be warranted. On the offensive side, however, Chicago still has all the ingredients to be a dominant team. Patrick Kane is coming off of his best season as a professional, a season where he scored 110 points and has shown no signs of slowing down. Jonathan Toews was a point per game for the first time in his career, at age 30 he had more pace and excitement in his game than he has in many years, with the addition of several defensive-minded/two way centers, Toews should have a lot of the PK pressure and defensive zone pressure taken off of him, allowing him to have another huge year.
This team has been broken down into duos for much of the offseason, and the team’s second duo in their top-6 is no slouch either. Alex Debrincat looked like a top-20 winger in the NHL for much of last season, impressive for a 20-year-old second-round draft pick, even more, impressive due to the fact that he wasn’t playing with Patrick Kane for much of the year. Debrincat put up 41 goals in his sophomore season, and there doesn’t seem to be any reason to doubt that Debrincat will continue his success and become a perennial 50 goal scorer in the NHL. Dylan Strome is the question mark of this group, many experts expect him to regress after his stellar run with the Blackhawks after his trade from Arizona last year. Not only is it a contract year for Strome, but he has also heard all of these doubts and will come out with vengeance, building on last season and his chemistry with Alex Debrincat. Look for this duo to be even better this year.
3) Forward Depth
One of the main criticisms of Chicago, even during some of their deep playoff runs, was the lack of depth behind the all-star-like roster that played most of the minutes. This season, rather than going after names like Duchene, Panarin, or any of the other big-name forwards, Stan Bowman made several small trades and signings to help cure some of Chicago’s ailments last season such as the penalty kill, center depth, and flexibility of the players making up the bottom six of the forward group.
Bowman added several players that can play on the wing or at the center ice position including Ryan Carpenter, Andrew Shaw, Zach Smith, David Kampf, and Alex Nylander. Most of these players will end up on the 3rd or 4th line, but Nylander and Shaw could accompany the two duos occupying the top-6. Along with those new additions the Blackhawks have the likes of Drake Caggiula, Brandon Saad, Dylan Sikura, Brendan Perlini, Dominik Kubalik, Anton Wedin, and John Quenneville who could all play an important role in Chicago this year.
4) Improved Defense
It is no secret that keeping the puck out of the net was the Blackhawks’ biggest weakness not only last year but over the past three seasons. In 2018-19 the Blackhawks were 30th in the NHL in goals-against at an astounding 3.55 goals against per game. Luckily they were able to score their way out of trouble many times, and if they can replicate that offense again, it should be a great season in Chicago.
Over the past three seasons, Chicago possesses 48.2 expected goals-for percentage, good for 9th worst in the league, meaning Chicago is expected to get outscored on a regular basis, which obviously means they are expected to lose on a regular basis. Over that same time period, Chicago has given up 3,140 high danger scoring chances, possessing a 45% high danger chances for, which is good for 2nd worst in the league. The underlying numbers tell us what we already know, Chicago has been horrendous defensively since 2016, but with the addition of Jeremy Colliton’s man on man defensive system along with more defensive-minded blue liners gives us hope that this might turn around.
During the off-season Stan Bowman was able to add Calvin de Haan and Olli Maatta via trade, two defensemen that have an offensive zone start percentage of around 45%, two defensemen that can take the defensive zone pressure and penalty kill pressure off of veterans such as Keith and Seabrook, allowing them to thrive at 5 on 5 and on the powerplay. Both players are staying at home defenseman with better high danger chance percentages than the Blackhawks over the past few seasons, and both players have playoff experience and are capable of playing on either of the bottom two pairings throughout the season.
5) Influx of Youth
In rankings since 2013, it is no secret that Chicago’s prospect pool was less than impressive, most of their young players either made an impact in Chicago or were traded away at the trade deadline each year to extend the championship window. That is all but a distant memory now as the front office has added the likes of Adam Boqvist, Kirby Dach, Nic Beaudin, Philipp Kurashev, along with other stellar mid to late-round draft picks that could be impact depth forwards in Rockford or Chicago in the coming years.
Most of these players will start in Rockford, and there is another group including Alex Vlasic, Evan Barratt, Ian Mitchell, Niklas Nordgren, and Jake wise who are still in juniors or the NCAA. Mitchell is expected to join the Blackhawks after his junior season ends at Denver, stepping into a top-4 role immediately, much like Cale Makar did in Colorado last season.
Many believe that Kirby Dach should return to Saskatoon for one more year before making the jump to the NHL, however, I believe he is ready to play a second line wing or third-line center role in Chicago immediately. Since being drafted, Dach has cleared a lot of the doubt in the minds of many Blackhawks fans, showing why he was the third overall pick in June. He has shown that he is a much better skater than he is given credit for, he has also shown his 200-foot game, puck protection skills, and elite Hockey IQ along the way. Training camp and the preseason will be the real test for the 6’4 center, but I think he has made a great case to at least get his nine-game tryout.
I am under the impression that Adam Boqvist could make the opening night roster as well, which would make Connor Murphy or Erik Gustafsson expendable for an immediate impact forward. The more likely case is that he will start the season in Rockford and could be a midseason call up due to injury or his sheer dominance in the AHL.
Bonus: The Coaching Staff
With a full offseason to implement his systems, Jeremy Colliton should see even more success than the torrid pace that his team played with towards the end of last season. The addition of young coaches like Sheldon Brookbank and Tomas Mitell give the coaching staff a young and fresh approach and firsthand knowledge of how the game is played today both in Europe and the United States. Marc Crawford brings Stanley Cup coaching experience and a wealth of knowledge to round out a young staff that could really surprise as one of the better coaching staffs in the league in the coming years.
Lineup Projection
I am not saying this will be the lineup come October, and there is no doubt that about 30 players will see action throughout the season. However, I think this lineup is the best combination of what is realistic to start the season along with what gives the team the best chance to win. I would like to see Boqvist in place of Seabrook, which is highly unlikely, but a man can dream!
I truly believe this lineup has scoring and playmaking ability from top to bottom, along with a lot of grit and defensive ability along the way. For the first time in a while, Chicago has a lot of viable options to fill their lineup, and the ability to handle injuries or the ups and downs of an 82 game season.
My prediction: 95 points (wildcard position)
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Chicago will push the top-3 in the division and will make the playoffs as the Central will again send five teams to the Western Conference playoffs. After that, all bets are off, Chicago has the experience and skill to make a deep run behind the veteran leadership and youthful talent, I could see Chicago losing in the first round, but can also really see them challenging for the Western Conference crown in late May.
The Blackhawks have the pieces in place to take advantage of a brutal division where everyone beats up on each other for 82 games and make a run reminiscent of the Los Angelas Kings in 2012 and 2014.
Lineup courtesy: Capfriendly Stats courtesy: Natural Stat Trick Feature Image: sportingnews.com
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