Brendan Perlini Contract Talks Heating Up
It would seem that the 2019-20 Chicago Blackhawks’ roster is pretty set for the most part, that is except for maybe a few forwards that could bounce up and down between Rockford. The focus now is on restricted free agent Brendan Perlini, who has been a polarizing player for Hawks fans throughout the summer.
Perlini was acquired by Chicago along with Dylan Strome in the Nick Schmaltz trade in November 2018, a trade that was widely criticized from the jump but looks pretty solid at this point. At the time, Perlini was more of a “sure thing” than Strome believe it or not, Perlini would slot in as a middle-6 forward that could play up and down the lineup when need be. From the beginning it seemed to be the opposite, Strome looked like the top pick that Arizona selected in 2014, and Perlini looked like a tweener forward with some speed but was a healthy scratch on many occasions.
Around March, things got a little more complicated, Perlini hit a hot steak where he scored 5 goals and 2 assists in 3 games, in route to being named the NHL’s 2nd star of the week. This is where the contract conundrum started before that Perlini looked like a guy that might not even be resigned, after that he looked like a guy that could score a Richard Panik type deal of over $2.5 million. I think this is why the contract talks have gone on as long as they have, with the lack of consistency Chicago goes not want to invest heavily in AAV or term, while the Perlini camp doesn’t want to settle either.
Scott Powers of The Athletic tweeted today that sources have said the two sides could reach an agreement in the coming week, which is good news as far as most of us are concerned. The question remains, how much is Perlini worth, and do the Blackhawks really need him?
Evolving Wild Hockey has Perlini’s next contract projected at 2 years with a cap hit of $2,056,560 based on his advanced statistical analysis over the life of the previous contract and his performance in 2018-9. Now, obviously Perlini is not going to get that contract, rumor has it that his agent is asking in the neighborhood of $1.5 million at the current moment. Evolving Wild was relatively close on the Panarin contract projection, and actually under value on the Trouba and Duchene contracts, so there are obviously some variables such as market, GM, and team fit.
To get an idea of what Perlini might get, I used the player comparison tool on Hockey-Reference to compare the third year of their ELC for Perlini, Andreas Athanasiou, Sam Bennett, Zach Hyman, and Tevo Teravainen. Why these four? All four players were high draft picks that had some consistency issues in their first few seasons and had a contract year that had flashes of brilliance as well as some time in the AHL or as a healthy scratch.
Here is what the numbers say…
When it comes to goal scoring and shot creation, Perlini was right in the thick of it with those four players, where he struggled was in the assist category. Perlini only garnered seven assists in 2018-19 in 71 games, which was easily last among the group. Point shares is a good measure of a players impact on the ice, and here is where Perlini stacked up amongst some other young players of similar situations.
Point shares (the estimated standing points a player adds to their team)
Alex Galchenyuk 5.6
Zach Hyman 4.0
Teuvo Teravainen 3.3
Andreas Athanasiou 2.7
Sam Bennett 1.6
Brendan Perlini 1.5
It should be noted that Hyman was a full three years older than Perlini in his 3rd season while Athanasiou was a year older, Perlini was not completely outmatched on the offensive side but brought relatively no point share value on the defensive side. Let’s take a look at Bennett’s contract since they are the closest in value to their team:
Sam Bennett: 2 years / $1.95 million AAV / expired 2018-19
Although this makes that $2.0 million number within the realm of possibilities, I think that both sides know that is not going to happen. I think term could be a hang-up as well, but I am fairly confident that the two sides will settle on a two year deal around $1.33 million, I do think Perlini potentially has more value than that, but I think both sides realize the lack of consistency at the current moment as well as the fact that Chicago now has a fair amount of depth which would mean they don’t necessarily need Perlini.
What Perlini brings to the table?
Perlini is a former 12th overall draft pick, so it is safe to say that the 22-year-old possesses a fair amount of skill, and it has been made known that Chicago had their eyes on him previously, but was not ready to pay the price on his head. There is a lot to like about him, I would say the main attributes that set him apart are his straight-line speed and ability to get to the front of the net, much like Brandon Saad when he broke into the league but with a little more side to side agility and flare.
Versatility is something that Jeremy Colliton has preached this offseason, and that is another reason to like Brendan Perlini. He has the speed and skill to play with Toews and Kane, the chemistry to line up next to Strome and Debrincat, and the tenacity to play on the bottom lines as well, come playoff time he could be an ace in the hole much like the Desjardins-Kruger-Shaw line in the 2015 playoffs.
Where does he fit on the current roster?
You can check out my recent article where I talked about and predicted the ideal lineup for the 2019-20 season to see what I believe the team will/should look like.
I currently have him on a line with Carpenter and Caggiula, however, I do believe he will get at least 15 or so games with Strome and Debrincat, as well as a few games elsewhere in the ever-changing lineups throughout an NHL season.
I truly believe that Perlini is an asset to this franchise and that he will take a step forward in productivity and consistency this coming season. Both sides have been tight-lipped but optimistic throughout the negotiation process, and it sounds like a deal will shortly follow.
Feature Image: Chicago Blackhawks via Twitter Data: Hockey-Referency, Evolving Wild Hockey, and CapFriendly
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