The Ashton Jeanty Conundrum
I wrote about Tyler Warren and how I loathe the thought of the Bears selecting him in the first round a few weeks ago.
I would have said the same thing about Ashton Jeanty one month ago (in fact, I kind of did).
PHOTO: Joe Rondone/The Republic/USA TODAY NETWORK/Imagn Images
While I remain adamantly opposed to the selection of Warren, my stance on Jeanty has softened considerably with the Bears’ recent free-agent additions. With that said, I have never been more torn on whether I want the Bears to select a player if he’s on the board than I am with the Boise State product.
Before free agency, I firmly planted my flag on the ‘I do not want Ashton Jeanty’ bandwagon, but that had nothing to do with Jeanty himself and was more due to recognizing the importance of building the trenches.
The Bears’ front office clearly had a similar mindset, as both the offensive and defensive line had been completely transformed before the first day of the new league year was even in the books. I promptly removed the flag at that point, but the hesitancy has remained.
Returning to the Warren conversation, I actually view both players in a similar light: they are two of the best players in the draft and are worth the price of admission, being selected tenth overall. However, they differ greatly compared to others at their respective positions over the years. While Warren is just a well-rounded prospect, Jeanty is one of the best running back prospects in the past two decades. I don’t believe in ‘generational prospects’, but he’s as can’t-miss as can be.
Some people might be thinking, ‘If you hold him in such high standing, why are you unsure whether you want the Bears to draft him?’
Well, there are a few aspects that make Jeanty one of the most polarizing prospects in recent memory (at least from Chicago’s perspective).
For starters, Braxton Jones is entering a contract year and, if this year’s free agent offensive line market is any indication, the odds that Chicago is willing to resign him to a massive extension appear slim at best, especially with the potential of him being less effective as he recovers from a torn Achilles. If Dan Moore Jr. (who has been bad) is making more than $20 million per year with Tennessee, then Jones (who has been mid) might set a record, even with only one intact Achilles tendon. Tackle might not seem like the team’s top need at this point, but it could certainly appear as a glaring need this time next year.
Additionally, only six running backs have been selected in the top ten over the past 12 years. The position has become greatly devalued over the years, and teams have found starting-quality backs in the middle-to-late rounds as a result. That will all but certainly be the case with this year’s class, too, as it has been lauded as one of the most stacked units in recent memory. Could it wind up being like the similarly regarded 2012 class? Where virtually every player either fell well short of expectations or quickly fizzled out after a strong start to their career? Sure, but I genuinely don’t see that being the case with this group, as there are a few guys who will be available on day two who I am bullish on.
The fact that TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins could be available when the Bears are on the clock in the second round is ridiculous. Likewise, the idea of DJ Giddens, Cam Skattebo, or Kaleb Johnson potentially being on the board in the THIRD round is equally insane. These are all very good players who are also a great fit for the Bears, who need an inside-the-tackles chain-mover (D’Andre Swift will still be involved if we end up with anyone other than Jeanty). The opportunity cost of drafting Jeanty hinders Chicago’s ability to land a potential steal later in the draft, which is surely a factor that the front office is weighing.
Conversely, all six of the aforementioned running backs who were drafted as high as Jeanty will make an immediate impact for their respective teams. While their longevity varied, they all lived up to their sky-high potential for a short period. History suggests Jeanty will do the same, and that’s before you even turn on the tape (spoiler alert – the tape is REALLY F’N GOOD). See what I mean? See why this is such a conundrum? You can preach depth till the cows come home (as I have), but no RB in this class has a higher ceiling or floor than Jeanty.
Do you have whiplash yet? That has kind of been my intention here lol… As I mentioned, I’ve never been more torn about a player (including Jalen Carter a few years ago, whom I wanted), and there are valid arguments on both sides of the coin with this one.
Will I be mad if Jeanty is still on the board and we pass on him for a tackle? No. Will I be upset if he’s the pick at 10? Nope.
Will I be confused either way? Probably. Do I hope the Raiders pick him at 6? It’d probably save me some anxiety.
PHOTO: Joe Rondone/The Republic/USA TODAY NETWORK/Imagn Images
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