Bear Necessities: How Can the Bears Beat the Minnesota Vikings?
Identifying key factors to victory tends to be a relatively straightforward task. Win the turnover battle, stay ahead of the sticks, yada yada yada.
However, I think there also tends to be a handful of (somewhat) under-the-radar factors that are vital to a team’s ability to come away with a win.
Whether it be an individual player or an aspect of the game, there are always a few X-factors that play a big role on gameday.
Through this series, I will identify those for Chicago.
The Ben Johnson era gets started with a bang, as the Bears host Minnesota in the Monday night opener. The schedule makers took notes from the Lions and Vikings matchups last year, and they are clearly banking on Ben Johnson bringing some of that excitement to the Windy City. Two of the league’s best offensive minds are going head-to-head with their hopeful second-year franchise QBs leading the way.
Oh, speaking of, the irony of a book (written by an ESPN employee) detailing Caleb Williams’ pre-draft desire to be a Viking getting released the day after the MNF opener is not lost on me. Shameless marketing, amirite? That’s a story for another day (you’ll probably hear it on Monday night at least a thousand times), though.
Getting back to the plot, what are the Bear Necessities for Chicago on Monday night?
1) Make JJ McCarthy Uncomfortable
JJ McCarthy will be making his NFL debut on Monday night. That sentence should have the Bears’ defense licking their chops. Their ability to make the hometown kid uncomfortable will be vital in getting them off the field on third down. They can accomplish that task by winning in two main areas.
For starters, the Bears will need to control the line of scrimmage on the defensive side of the ball. Somewhat surprisingly, the Vikings haven’t had a ton of success on the ground in the Kevin O’Connell era. They ranked 27th in yards and 29th in yards per carry last year. Still, Aaron Jones continued being a thorn in Chicago’s side, as he averaged 96 yards in the two games against them last year. Shutting down the running game and keeping them behind the sticks will allow the Bears’ defensive line to pin their ears back and create a messy pocket. That leads me to my next point..
The best way to make McCarthy uncomfortable is by getting consistent pressure on him. The Bears’ defense will be in trouble if he has all day to throw. He hasn’t had the chance to show how decisive he can be in the pros yet, but he was downright clinical with a clean pocket at the University of Michigan. I fully expect Dennis Allen to get the memo on this one. I think they will be bringing extra rushers all night.
2) Get the Running Game Going
The Vikings had the second-ranked rushing defense last year. They were often downright dominant against the run. However, there is still reason for optimism with the Bears’ ground attack on Monday night. Not only did they add three new starters to the interior of the offensive line this offseason, but the Vikings also traded away their best run-stopping defensive tackle, Harrison Phillips, last week.
Minnesota still has two quality defensive tackles in Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, who both joined the team in free agency. They’re both significantly better pass rushers than they are run defenders, though. They won’t really replace Phillips’ gap-plugging ability.
Ben Johnson provides another reason for optimism in this matchup. While the Vikings may have been great against the run, they got bullied in both games against Detroit. The Lions gashed them for 178 yards on the ground in the season finale loss, and ran for 144 yards earlier in the year. The former was by far their worst performance, and the latter was the fourth-most they allowed on the year. While it’d be naive to expect a 1:1 comparison, considering how effective Detroit’s running game was last season, it’s at least promising that he has shown he has the answers to Brian Flores’ equations.
3) Keep Things Simple for Caleb Williams
Remember when I said I expect the Bears to be blitz-heavy on Monday night? It’s already a foregone conclusion that Minnesota will do the same on the defensive side of the ball. Flores is as aggressive as any defensive coordinator in the league.
I think Caleb Williams will eventually master the Ben Johnson playbook, but there will undoubtedly be bumps in the road. He picked up a few bad habits last season while being coached by Matt Eberflus’ treasonous coaching staff. Those will have to get tailored out before he clicks on all cylinders. I’d be surprised if he lights up a defense as good as the one the Vikings are fielding (at least in the front seven) on Monday.
While Johnson might reach into his bag for a trick play or two against Minnesota, I think he will mostly keep things simple for Williams early on. He won’t necessarily dumb down the offense, but he knows this is game one of a long marriage. He will execute some quick completions and easy reads so the sacred union gets off to a good start.
Call me an optimist, but I think it will go well for them.
Prediction: Bears win 24-20
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