Bear Necessities: Redemption in Landover?
I hope this is a game Caleb Williams circled when the schedule was announced. In fact, I hope the whole team circled it.
A primetime Monday night matchup against the team that lit the match to the mess that was the second half of the ’24 season.
Everyone knows what happened and what ensued from it. They were 4-2 coming into the game and proceeded to rattle off nine straight losses after it. This is a game that the team should really want to win.
It’s an eerily similar situation to last year’s matchup. So much so that I was actually really annoyed with the schedule makers for creating this situation when the schedule dropped. The Bears are riding a multi-game winning streak, and their first matchup off the Bye Week is on the road in Washington.
Still, there is reason for hope, and he doesn’t like being told what to do by sideline reporters after halftime. He definitely doesn’t have anything up his sleeve.
Not only am I much more confident in Ben Johnson‘s Chicago Bears coming off the Bye Week, but I’m much more confident in Ben Johnson’s Chicago Bears, period. A team can only go as far as its head coach can take them, and it feels like the Bears have a real ceiling with Johnson calling the shots.
I’m not sure the Bears of years past would’ve bounced back strong after the 31-point shellacking against Detroit. I’m also not sure they would’ve come away with a hard-fought win against the Raiders.
This Bears team found a way, though.
Now, how can they put themselves in a position to stay in the winning column?
1) Control the Time of Possession
I was trying to quantify the best way to say “The offense needs to play well to win on Monday night.” I think I did that here. Time of possession is arguably the most effective metric to measure offensive success. They need to keep the drives moving and keep the Commanders’ offense off the field.
On paper, the Commanders have an ideal ball-control offensive attack. They have a great offensive line that opens up big running lanes for whoever is in the backfield and a quarterback who does a good job of protecting the ball in Jayden Daniels. Still, that hasn’t really translated to them sustaining long drives this year (even in the games where Daniels has played). They rank 28th in time of possession (27:19 average) and 29th in 3rd down percentage (32.69%).
Meanwhile, the Bears rank sixth in third-down percentage (45.45%) and sixteenth in time of possession (30:41 average). If each team stays true to who they’ve been through the first quarter of the season, this is an area where Chicago has a massive edge. At the very least, the Bears’ offense needs to hold up their end of the bargain.
2) Find a Way to Stop Washington’s Running Game
How can the Bears keep the Commanders’ offense off the field? Slow their running game. Jayden Daniels hasn’t looked like last year’s Jayden Daniels through three games, and their rushing attack has been their bread and butter thus far this year. Even with a knee-braced Daniels, they have the best running game in the league with 156.4 yards per game. The fact that they rank sixteenth in rushing attempts makes that fact exponentially more impressive.
According to CHGO, Daniels has scrambled on 20.5% of his dropbacks this season, which is the most in the NFL. That is obviously factoring into the Commanders’ rushing total, and the Bears need to have a plan for it. They need to keep him in the pocket and limit the impact he makes with his legs.
There’s no sugarcoating it; The Bears need to make massive strides in this area to come away with a win on Monday. If the run defense has a repeat performance of the game against Las Vegas, the Commanders will coast to a ten-point win.
Luckily for the Bears, they are finally getting healthy on the defensive side of the ball. T.J. Edwards is one of their best defensive players, and that’s not because of his pass coverage ability. He’s a stone wall against the run. Kyler Gordon is also set to make his season debut against Washington, and his presence cannot be understated. He’s one of the best run-stopping nickel corners in the league. Grady Jarrett will also (hopefully) be back in the lineup against the Commanders. The reinforcements couldn’t be coming at a more perfect time, because they will need all hands on deck.
3) Make. It. Personal.
I know the Bears were being coached by an entirely different (much more inept) coaching staff last year. Still, 37 players on Chicago’s roster were on the team a year ago. They felt it, and they should want to get their lick back on Monday night.
ESPN will show the Hail Mary at least 30 times on the pre-game broadcast and throughout the game. It’s going to be excessive and annoying. Still, I believe they should lean into it inside Halas Hall. Don’t make it just another matchup against a conference team. Make it a must-win against the team that effectively ruined what was a promising season.
Revenge can be one helluva motivator. We saw that three weeks ago when Caleb Williams and the Bears defense had a downright menacing performance with Matt Eberflus on the other sideline. We were on the other end of it the prior week against the Lions, who were obviously fired up to spoil Ben Johnson’s return to Detroit. Speaking of the Lions, the Commanders were also responsible for ending Johnson’s 2024 season. Even if it was under different circumstances, you’d think that would be enough for him to want this one just a bit more than a normal week six matchup.
I know it’s not a divisional game, but it’s going to feel like it on Monday night. I think it’s going to be electric, and I really think the Bears are going to be feeding off the electricity.
Call me crazy, but I think they end up with the upset win.
Prediction: Bears win 27-24
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