Bear Necessities: How Can the Bears Beat Baltimore?
An ugly win is still a win, and wins are hard to come by.
The Saints game went pretty much as I expected. I mentioned they were feisty, and they certainly lived up to that billing last week. They are much better than their 1-6 record would indicate.
Like everyone else, I would’ve liked to see Caleb Williams play a bit better against New Orleans. However, QB development is not linear, and even the best of them have their off days. The fact that they can win a game by 12 points when their QB is off his game is a breath of fresh air, too. Last year’s team probably lost that game late. It’s not hard to celebrate a fourth-straight win with over 220 yards on the ground and four takeaways.
Speaking of takeaways, the Bears have 15 over the past four games. They’ve done it without their best defensive player, Jaylon Johnson. A handful of teams won’t reach 15 takeaways over the course of the entire season. While that’s a ridiculous statistic that deserves to be celebrated, it’s also something that can’t be relied upon. The oil is going to run dry in the turnover department at some point, and that day could come as soon as this week if Lamar Jackson returns to the lineup.
I’m writing this on Wednesday evening, and Jackson’s status is currently up in the air. He did return to practice today, though. Considering the high-stakes nature of the game, I expect Jackson to be out there… so that’s where my mindset is with this one. Ben Johnson echoed a similar sentiment this morning. He said they will be preparing as if the two-time MVP will be out there.
The Ravens haven’t done themselves any favors to begin this year. They’ve stumbled out of the gates and are 1-5 to begin the year, largely due to being bitten by the injury bug and abysmal play on the defensive side of the ball. Still, they’re one of the league’s most talented teams on paper. That, combined with the fact that they’ve effectively entered must-win territory the rest of the way, makes them a dangerous opponent.
Remember when I said the Saints are no ordinary 1-6 team? I’m truly not sure we’ve ever seen a 1-5 team like the Ravens.
I know there has been some disdain with the Bears entering the game as 6.5-point underdogs. While I’m a bit surprised by the line, I’m honestly not mad about it. I hope they use it as bulletin board material and lean into the underdog angle. Vegas is basically saying it doesn’t believe in what the Bears are selling. Prove ’em wrong!
This isn’t a game that I had Chicago winning before the season began. I feel a lot better about it now, though.
It’s not going to be easy, but I think they’ve got a chance to cement their status as a contender. How can they get it done?
1) Keep the Ravens Offense off the Field
The Bears proved that their rushing performance against the Commanders wasn’t a mirage, as they had an even better performance on the ground last week. Both teams were pretty solid at stopping the run before playing Chicago, too. Do you know who hasn’t been solid at stopping the run this year? The Ravens. They rank 26th in yards allowed (806) and have allowed 4.5 yards per carry. They could conceivably be much better after the Bye Week, but they’re still down their best defensive lineman in Nnamdi Madubuike.
The Lions set the blueprint for beating the Ravens last month. They had nearly 430 yards of total offense and possessed the ball for over 33 minutes. What’s the best way to keep a potentially potent offense out of the end zone? Keep them off the field. What’s the best way to not let a QB (or RB) take over a game? Don’t let them get into a rhythm. The Bears can come away with the upset if they check those boxes this week.
2) Get Luther Burden III Involved
Is this a 100% essential factor in coming away with a win? Maybe not. However, I think they need to make a concerted effort to get the ball into Burden’s hands more often. Good things seem to happen when they do, and that’s often because of his YAC ability. Olamide Zaccheaus has a solid rapport with Caleb Williams, and it’s clear that he’s earned the coaching staff’s trust. However, he’s just not nearly as dynamic.
Burden has caught 12 of 14 targets for 172 yards thus far this year. Those numbers will ideally rise as he continues to get his feet underneath him. I think getting him more involved would help them take the offense to the next level.
3) Play Cleaner in the Penalty Department (And Pray the Refs Don’t Get Bored)
This is a downright annoying entry. It’s the second time I’ve highlighted penalties (the first was after the season opener) on this series. It’s the first time I’ve added the caveat about the refs, though. They’ve been awful this year. I don’t think it’s some conspiracy that’s led to the flags flying more for Chicago than for their opponent, but there have been SO many questionable calls going against them. I swear, I don’t usually make poor officiating a grievance (because they’ve always been bad), but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Still, the Bears are not innocent in the flag department. They need to cut down the offensive pre-snap penalties. The silent count might help on the road (it really seems like a cadence-related issue), but they can’t survive if they keep shooting themselves in the foot.
I think the Bears have a good chance to beat the disrespectful (considering each team’s record) spread. Unless Baltimore completely fixes their defensive woes over the Bye Week, this game seems like it’ll come down to a field goal. However, if Jackson plays, I could see him willing Baltimore to victory at home.
The sky will not be falling, though. No loss feels good. I think we’ll have a bit more clarity about who this team is a week from now, though, and that will feel good.
Prediction: Ravens win 30-27
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