Best-Case Scenarios: Ranking the Bears Potential First Round Playoff Opponents
In their first year under head coach Ben Johnson, the Chicago Bears have taken the NFC North, securing a home playoff game in the opening round of the postseason.
Now, the only question remaining is who will be coming to Chicago to face the Bears.
In this article, I’ll break down the three possible scenarios and rank each team the Bears could see in round one.
Week 18 Scenarios
Having clinched the NFC North, the Chicago Bears have locked up a top-4 seed in the NFC. Unfortunately, the #1 seed became out of reach after the Bears lost a high-scoring affair to Chris Foerster and the 49ers last week.
The Bears also can’t drop to the #4 seed because that belongs to the winner of the NFC South, which will be either the Carolina Panthers or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The only remaining seeds the Bears could end up with are the #2 or #3 seed.
NFC Playoff Standings
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3) *
- Chicago Bears (11-5) *
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) *
- Carolina Panthers (8-8)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4) *
- Los Angeles Rams (11-5) *
- Green Bay Packers (9-6-1) *
*clinched playoff spot
1) Controlling the #2 Seed
As of writing, the Bears hold the #2 seed and control their own destiny. They’re set to host the Detroit Lions in the afternoon window tomorrow, where a win would guarantee them the #2 seed.
Last time these NFC North rivals faced off was in Week 2, when the Lions decimated the Bears 52-21. The story of the game was the Bears’ defense simply not getting stops. Jared Goff threw for 334 yards and 5 TDs while Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 94 yards and a TD of his own. Whether it was through the air or on the ground, the Bears had no answers for the Lions’ explosive offense.
I think the matchup will look much different this time around. When they played in Week 2, it was only Ben Johnson’s second game as an NFL head coach. The Bears were still developing their identity and learning Johnson’s offense. Since then, the Bears have improved drastically, winning 11of their last 14 games. The Lions are also missing several key players heading into tomorrow’s game. They’ll be without All-Pro offensive tackle Penei Sewell, defensive tackle Alim McNeil, and linebacker Alex Anzalone. On top of that, their star receiver Amon Ra St. Brown is questionable with a knee/ankle injury.
As long as the Bears can take care of business against the Lions, then they’ll be the NFC’s 2 seed heading into the playoffs. However, with a little bit of help, they won’t even need a win.
The Philadelphia Eagles play the Washington Commanders on Sunday, and if Philly loses, the Bears will be the #2 seed no matter what else happens. Initially, I thought this outcome was unlikely given Washington’s struggles this season. But the Eagles will be resting a majority of their starters, so I expect the Commanders to come out on top.
If I had to make a prediction, I would guess that the Bears end up being the 2 seed. I think it’s likely that they beat the Lions at home, and it’s highly possible that the Commanders beat the Eagles’ backups. And if that were to be the case, the Bears would face Green Bay in the playoffs.
2) Falling to #3
There is a scenario where the Bears lose the #2 seed and fall to #3. If the Bears lose to the Lions and the Eagles beat the Commanders, Chicago will end up with the #3 seed. They would then play either the 49ers or the Rams in the first round of the playoffs.
The 49ers play the Seahawks on Saturday night for the #1 seed in the NFC. If the 49ers win, then the Bears would play the Rams. But if the 49ers lose, and the Rams beat the Cardinals (which they should), then the Bears would host the 49ers.
Ranking Potential Playoff Opponents
Since the Chicago Bears won the NFC North for the first time since 2018, they’ll be hosting a home playoff game for the first round of the postseason. They can finish as either the #2 or #3 seed in the NFC, and their possible opponents are the Packers, 49ers, or Rams.
I think there’s a clear order of who the Bears should hope to avoid.
1) Los Angeles Rams
I think the Rams are clearly the BEST possible team the Bears could face in round one. They are led by an MVP candidate at quarterback in Matthew Stafford and one of the best coaches in the league in Sean McVay. I find it hard to believe the Bears can stop the Rams’ offense. Stafford is throwing to Puka and Davonte Adams while Kyren Williams and Blake Corum combine for a solid rushing attack. That worries me a little.
Their offense also ranks first in total yards and red-zone efficiency, and third in total offensive efficiency. While their offense is their strength, the Rams’ defense is still one of the league’s best. They rank 8th in points allowed per game and 5th in takeaways. So the Bears would have trouble stopping the Rams’ offense and then have to worry about keeping up with them because of their stout defense.
But if the Bears do have to play the Rams in round one, it’s not all doom and gloom. Playing in LA, the Rams are used to warm-weather games. Unfortunately for them, they’d have to come to Chicago and play in Bear weather. Cold-weather games typically favor the better rushing attacks, and the Bears are among the NFL’s best when it comes to pounding the football.
The Bears are undoubtedly capable of beating the Rams in the playoffs because I believe they can compete with anybody. Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense give them a chance in every game they play. However, out of the three possible teams the Bears could see in the playoffs, I hope it’s not the Rams.
2) San Francisco 49ers
The Bears just went toe-to-toe with the 49ers in Santa Clara, and if they had to play again, I’d pick the Bears to win. We know the Niners’ offense is dangerous. They dropped 42 points on the Bears, and Dennis Allen’s defense couldn’t buy a stop. But in a game where Chicago’s defense was truly abysmal, it still came down to the very last play.
Their defense also doesn’t stack up with the Rams. They lost their two best defenders, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, to injuries. Without them, they’ve struggled quite a bit. They are dead last in sacks with just 18, and they rank 19th in yards allowed per game. As the Bears showed in their previous matchup, they can score at will against the 49ers’ defense. Stopping their offense is their only concern.
Similar to the Rams, the 49ers play in California, where it’s typically warm. They would have to play the Bears in Chicago, giving the Bears a massive advantage. Brock Purdy has also struggled in cold-weather games, so hopefully the Bears’ defense can capitalize on that.
I wouldn’t be too nervous if the Bears drew the 49ers in round one. Chicago should be able to put up points against its lackluster defense, and the weather should help slow down Purdy and the Niners’ offense.
3) Green Bay Packers
Bring on the cheeseheads. The Bears’ most likely scenario is that they end up with the #2 seed, meaning they’ll face the Packers. Sign me up!
I really want the Bears to play the Packers in the playoffs. Part of this is because they’re the Packers, and I’d love nothing more than to end their season and shut up their obnoxious fan base. But, I also believe they’re the “easiest” possible matchup for the Bears.
The Bears and Packers played twice this season, splitting the series with two nail-biting games. In their first matchup, the game came down to the last play. It was 4th down, and Caleb Williams threw a pick in the end zone to lose the game. In the second outing, the Bears completed the most significant victory I’ve ever seen from a Bears team. They were down 10 points with just a couple of minutes to go. Williams led them down the field for a field goal, then the Bears recovered an onside kick, and Williams completed a 4th-down TD to Jahdae Walker to send the game to overtime. In OT, Williams threw a 48-yard TD to DJ Moore to win the game and send the Packers home.
The Packers are a good football team, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t think they stack up well with the other two teams. They’ve lost a lot of key players to injuries, including star defensive end Micah Parsons. Jordan Love has also been dealing with a concussion and a shoulder injury, so he’s probably not 100%.
If these teams were to matchup again, I’m taking the Bears every day of the week and twice on Sundays. I’m sure it’d be another close game at Soldier Field, and I can’t wait to watch.
Having clinched the NFC North, the Chicago Bears will be hosting a first-round playoff game. It’s TBD what seed they’ll end up with, or who they’ll play.
But, I’m hoping it’s the Green Bay Packers so we can put an end to the cheeseheads’ season.
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