From Arlington to Indiana: The Bears Stadium Circus Rolls On
It is almost a year to date since I wrote Watters’ Wisdom: Stop Messing Around and Build the Damn Stadium, and to absolutely nobody’s surprise, I am here — a full trip around the sun later — still preaching the same nonsense.
Although this time… things have gotten a little spicy.
As we all know, the Chicago Bears have been in stadium-search purgatory for a solid 10 years. I grew up around Arlington Race Track and, oddly enough, one summer back home from college, my buddies and I worked security on the backstretch.
I bring this up because that was in 2018, and I vividly remember my boss constantly talking about how the Bears were going to buy that land and move there.
Well… It’s 2026. No stadium. No shovel in the ground. Not even a ceremonial shovel photo op.
But hey — at least we’ve gotten about 15 open letters from Kevin Warren. Progress.
Here is where this “progress” gets complicated: the stadium situation isn’t just Bears ownership dragging their feet. There’s real political posturing happening behind the scenes.
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker has essentially said from day one that he is not eager to spend public money on a privately owned NFL stadium, especially amid budget pressure already on the state. The important phrase here is privately owned stadium. A lot of misinformation has been floating around that the Bears are asking taxpayers to pay for the stadium itself. That couldn’t be further from the truth. Honestly, it’s something I will defend George McCaskey and Bears ownership on: they are doing something relatively rare in the NFL by privately funding the stadium. In other words — you and I are not paying for the building itself.
What is being asked of the Illinois government is help fund the infrastructure necessary to support a project of this scale — roads, public transportation, train access, utilities — the whole deal.
And on paper, infrastructure improvements sound great regardless of whether the Bears move there, right? Well, this is where the political chess starts. Public funding tied to anything stadium-related — whether it’s turf, transit, or a streetlight ten blocks away — tends to be controversial. Even if it’s not a direct handout, it doesn’t take much imagination to picture a political opponent running a headline like, “Pritzker gives tax breaks to a billionaire family,” regardless of how accurate that actually is.
From the governor’s perspective, it’s a tricky spot: work with the Bears and risk political backlash over helping billionaire owners, or risk losing the Chicago Bears altogether, which would mean lost tax revenue, lost jobs, and the kind of headline no Illinois politician wants to own. If Indiana somehow sets the perfect “bear trap” just across the border in Gary, the political fallout in Illinois would be massive.
And as messy as that sounds, that’s only where the issues with the folks down in Springfield start.
Which brings us to everyone’s favorite topic: property taxes. Exactly what you all came to my class for, right?
The mayor of Arlington Heights, Jim Tinaglia, was recently on Waddle & Silvy explaining this about a thousand times better than I probably will, so if you want to preserve a few extra brain cells, go check that out. If not, here we go.
When Arlington Race Track was still operating, Churchill Downs and its prior ownership groups paid roughly $3.6 million in property taxes annually. When the Chicago Bears bought the property, it was reassessed. And when land is reassessed like this, it’s typically valued not on what it is, but on what it could become.
And what could it become with an NFL stadium? Something massive.
That reassessment pushed the current property taxes on what is essentially empty land to around $16 million annually. Yes — the Bears are currently paying roughly $16 million a year for land with no stadium, no development, nothing.
But That’s Not Even the Main Issue
The bigger issue is that if a stadium and surrounding entertainment district were built there, estimates suggest property taxes could climb into the neighborhood of $150 MILLION ANNUALLY. All caps fully intended, because that number is objectively wild. And honestly, some projections say even that could be conservative.
This is what people mean when the Bears talk about needing “tax certainty.”
For perspective, the Los Angeles Rams pay roughly $8.8 million in property taxes on SoFi Stadium each year. Clearly, that’s the result of a negotiated tax structure between ownership and local government.
Here’s Why That Matters
Commercial property taxes often land somewhere around 7% of assessed value annually. That works fine for your local TJ Maxx. It does not work for a $5 billion stadium complex. It simply becomes financially unrealistic — not just for the Bears, but for anyone looking to develop that Arlington Heights site at scale.
This isn’t really about a tax break for billionaires; it’s about the reality of how mega-project financing works. Without some form of tax structure adjustment, these kinds of developments rarely happen.
All of which brings us to where things stand now: the Bears are essentially looking for some form of megaproject development legislation that would allow them to negotiate a workable long-term tax structure with Arlington Heights.
Phew… that was a lot.
Who’s Ready to Talk About Indiana?
As if this already wasn’t an absolute circus, our friendly neighbor saw all the fun and decided to jump in and make things a heck of a lot more complicated. During all the shenanigans and negotiating—or lack thereof—it seems Kevin Warren decided to drop the Chicago and Arlington Heights toys he was playing with and waddle over to the shiny new iPad in Gary, Indiana.
And boy… that iPad is intriguing.
Indiana lawmakers have proposed creating a Northwest Indiana Stadium Authority, which is basically a government entity that could:
- Buy land
- Issue bonds to finance construction
- Manage leases with the team
- Help structure taxes and revenue sharing
This same model has been used for several NFL stadium deals, so it’s not exactly uncharted territory.
Not only that, but Indiana has reportedly shown a willingness to offer up to $1 billion toward stadium construction, along with public financing through bonds and infrastructure support around the site — in what could eventually be called Halas Harbour, which, low-key, kind of rocks.
All of that amounts to significantly more direct financial support than Illinois is currently offering.
But Here’s the Part That Makes This More Than Negotiation Theater
Indiana has a very strong incentive to pull this off.
Granted, they already have the Indianapolis Colts. However, landing an NFL team isn’t just about football — it’s about economic development. And when that NFL team happens to be the Chicago Bears, that’s an economic boom. Stadium districts bring hotels, restaurants, retail, concerts, and, most importantly, long-term tax revenue. This is the type of project that instantly boosts an area’s national profile.
Not to say Santa Clara wasn’t previously well known, but I can’t imagine it was quite the destination it is now before the 49ers arrived — you know what I mean?
And if we’re being completely honest with ourselves, stealing the Chicago Bears would be an unimaginable flex from Indiana’s perspective. Decades of Illinois history, fandom, and economic activity suddenly shifting a few miles east — that’s the kind of win politicians build entire careers on.
Now, Do I Think the Bears Actually Want to Leave Illinois?
Probably not. The brand is Chicago. The identity is Chicago. The phrase “Indiana Bears” alone makes me want to puke. But professional sports are still a business, and for many owners, emotions tend to take a back seat to the balance sheet — especially when a state is willing to bend over backward for you.
That’s why Indiana’s involvement matters even if the Bears never actually move there. It has completely changed the negotiating leverage. What once felt like smoke and mirrors is now looking like a legitimate alternative. Illinois is no longer negotiating in a vacuum — there’s a very real option on the table.
Which, ironically, might end up being the best thing that’s happened for Arlington Heights this entire process. Nothing speeds up negotiations quite like the threat of someone else getting the deal.
So, I’ll ask you — what would you prefer?
For the first time in a long time, it actually feels like a decision could be right around the corner.
Personally, I’d love to see the Bears remain in Illinois — specifically Arlington Heights. It just feels right. But I also can’t necessarily blame the organization if they end up looking beyond state lines. Financially, as things currently stand, it’s pretty close to a no-brainer, and honestly, it’s not uncommon across the NFL.
Right now, it seems like the Bears are doing everything they can to make Illinois work… but it takes two to tango.
Time will tell. I just sincerely hope I’m not writing this exact same blog a third time next year.
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Categorized:Bears